According to the Teachings of Nostradumbass: The Supreme Court Just Brought Back the 1961 Carlos Marcello Deportation, and the Seer Who Saw It Coming Was Mostly Reading the Past Back to You
Nostradamus gave the world 942 quatrains so vague that every generation finds its own apocalypse in them. His lesser-known cousin, Nostradumbass, gave the world exactly one skill: he notices that something already happened, waits, and then announces that it is going to happen. He is right more often than his cousin. Today he was right again.
The quatrain, as found
The following verse was, according to Nostradumbass, discovered scrawled on the back of a Johnny Dangerously ticket stub in December 1984. We cannot authenticate the stub. We cannot authenticate Nostradumbass. We can authenticate everything after the verse.
From the swamp city the boss is flown south, to a land that did not bear him. The brother's brother falls, and the flown one is named. Forty years a joke, one summer a stay, and on the ninth month's last Tuesday the robes say: again.
Nostradumbass would like credit for "the ninth month's last Tuesday," and, annoyingly, he gets it: September 29, 2026 is the last Tuesday in September. The one time he is precise, it is about the calendar, and everything else in the verse fits whatever you already know. This is the prophecy business in one sentence.
What actually happened today
On Tuesday, September 29, 2026, the Supreme Court granted the administration's emergency request and let it resume deporting people to countries other than their own, without first giving them a chance to show the harm they may face there. The order was unsigned, the three liberal justices dissented, and the court set full oral argument for December, so this is not the final word. Reporting from U.S. News, NPR and NBC News covers the order. Human-rights groups count more than 25,000 people deported to 29 countries under the policy since last year, most to Mexico, and others to South Sudan, Eswatini, Rwanda, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea and Liberia. The government's position is that partner countries have promised not to mistreat the people it sends, so individual review is unnecessary.
This is the second time the court has done this. In June 2025 it stayed a lower-court order the same way. Today's order is the sequel. December is the finale, and the finale is the court's to write, not a prophet's.
The comedy in this post is aimed at the prophecy business and at a recycled idea. It is not aimed at the 25,000 people. They are the part of this that is not a joke.
The original: New Orleans, April 4, 1961
Carlos Marcello ran the New Orleans mob. He was born Calogero Minacore in Tunis, Tunisia, in 1910, to Sicilian parents, and was brought to Louisiana as an infant, according to The Mob Museum. He was never a citizen, and the government had been trying to deport him for years.
Less than three months into John F. Kennedy's presidency, Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy made it happen. On April 4, 1961, immigration agents arrested Marcello in New Orleans and put him straight onto a government plane to Guatemala City. The destination was chosen because Marcello had obtained fraudulent Guatemalan papers years earlier. The country he was sent to was one he was not from. Guatemala moved him on to El Salvador, and from there he was pushed across the Honduran border on foot. He was back in Louisiana within months, reportedly on one of his own shrimp boats.
Sit with the setup for a second. The United States sent a man to a country that was not his, on the strength of paperwork, and the man walked home.
The irony that makes it a prophecy
In its final report of July 1979, the House Select Committee on Assassinations concluded that Marcello, along with Santos Trafficante and Jimmy Hoffa, had the motive, means and opportunity to kill President Kennedy. The committee cited a 1962 conversation in which Marcello reportedly said the little Bobby problem was going to be taken care of, and it found credible associations between both Lee Harvey Oswald and Jack Ruby and figures connected to Marcello's organization. The committee did not find that Marcello did it. It found that he could have.
So the most famous third-country deportee in American history became, eighteen years later, a named suspect in the assassination of the President whose brother put him on the plane. You could not sell that as fiction. Which brings us to fiction.
The gag: Johnny Dangerously, 1984
Johnny Dangerously is a 1984 comedy set in the 1930s, with Michael Keaton as a reluctant gangster and Richard Dimitri as Roman Moronie, a rival boss whose command of English profanity is enthusiastic and completely wrong. Fargin' this. Icehole that.
Here is where Nostradumbass overreaches, and we are going to let him fall. Patrick's reading is that the Moronie character carries some Marcello in him and that the film sends him somewhere he is not from. We went looking. Plot summaries and reviews confirm Moronie, the malaprops and the gang war. None of the sources we could find confirm a deportation scene or say the character was modeled on Marcello. So that part is a reading, not a receipt, and it stays labeled that way until someone with the DVD proves us wrong. Please do. Cunningham's Law is how this blog works.
The blunder Nostradumbass gets corrected on
Nostradumbass likes to close his readings with "two can keep a secret if one is dead," and he likes to say Marcello said it. Marcello did not write that. The line is Benjamin Franklin's, from the July page of Poor Richard's Almanack for 1735, and Franklin wrote "Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead," per the National Archives' Founders Online. It gets pinned on mobsters because it sounds like one. The Founding Fathers were quotable, and some of them were ruthless.
A seer who cannot get the attribution right on a 291-year-old almanac should maybe not be your source on December's oral argument. Keep that in mind below.
Why this belongs on a threat-intel blog
We call what we do context surfing. A new thing arrives, and instead of treating it as new, you read its shape against things that already happened. Most of what looks like prediction in our work is exactly this. A proof-of-concept exploit on GitHub looks like the last one that got weaponized in eleven days. A ransomware crew's new leak site looks like the one the FBI seized in the spring. A supply-chain compromise looks like the one we covered in May.
That is the whole trick, and it is why Nostradumbass is funny and also why he keeps being right. The best prophecy is noticing that an idea already happened once, in a different costume, and that ideas are portable. Removal to a country you are not from was a hand-built exception in 1961, aimed at one man the Attorney General personally wanted gone. It became a punchline in a 1930s gangster parody. Sixty-five years later it is a program with a spreadsheet, 29 destinations and an emergency docket. The context traveled. The shape did not change.
The predictions of Nostradumbass for December and beyond
These are jokes wearing a confidence score. They are not legal forecasting, and nobody should put money on a seer who misquotes almanacs. The 95% cap on every claim we publish applies to prophets too.
One. The December oral argument will take place in December. Nostradumbass is 95% sure, because the 95% cap applies even to things written on a calendar.
Two. The word "assurances" will be spoken at oral argument more times than the name of any person who was actually deported. Nostradumbass is 85% sure and 100% sad about it, which he is not allowed to say.
Three. When the final opinion lands, both sides will describe it as a vindication within the same news cycle. Nostradumbass is 90% sure. He has read the past.
Four. Somebody on television will attribute "two can keep a secret if one is dead" to a gangster before the year is out. Nostradumbass is 95% sure, having done it himself in this very post.
Five. Someone who owns Johnny Dangerously on DVD will email us within a week to settle the Moronie question, one way or the other. Nostradumbass is 60% sure, which is the most honest number in this post.
What we will actually do
We will cover the December argument when it happens, straight, with the dates beside the claims, which is the only prophecy method we trust. Nostradumbass has been asked to leave the building until then. He says he saw that coming.
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